CTRACK’s latest quarterly Transport and Freight Index, providing insights into key industry trends and performance metrics, indicates a slow shift of goods from road back to rail freight.
The report says that, after having reached the lowest level in two years in January 2025, the Ctrack Transport and Freight Index (Ctrack TFI) increased in six of the nine months to September to reach an index level of 118.5, 3.5% higher than in January, but still only 0.7% up on a year earlier.
According to the report published in November, this represents only a gradual recovery from multi-year lows, but the logistics sector remains in a steady recovery phase, though some sub-sectors are faring better than others. The report notes that progress on structural reforms to modernise the freight logistics sector has been observed in recent months and is creating a base to support future growth in the industry and the economy at large. Much-needed efficiency gains at ports and the rejuvenation of the rail network will in due course impact the economy positively by reducing transport costs, while enabling robust export growth potential, the report states.
Considering the first nine months of 2025, three sub-sectors contracted compared to a year earlier and three sectors advanced. However, given that the heavy-weighted road freight sub-sector remained under pressure, the overall logistics sector lagged by 3.3% compared to the corresponding period one year earlier.
Road freight (-5.8%), transport via pipelines (-2.9%) and the sub-component for storage and handling
(-5.6%) contracted, while the air freight (6.8%), rail freight (3.2%) and sea freight (1.7%) sub-sectors recorded growth. While monthly increases were recorded for three consecutive months to August, the Ctrack TFI slipped slightly in September, suggesting that the recovery will not be in a straight line and confirming that the sector is by no means out of the woods yet, according to the report/
The road freight sector, which accounts for 85.6% of all freight payload in South Africa in the first eight months of 2025, has experienced multiple headwinds since 2023. Among others cross-border delays, serious operational troubles at ports (particularly at the Durban port) and episodes of arson attacks targeting trucks on the N3 in KwaZulu-Natal, often also spreading to Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Government has also recently started to focus on structural reforms to redirect cargoes from road back to rail, although the impact thereof will only likely be notable in the medium term. Still, the cumulative impact of the headwinds resulted in road freight payload increasing by only 1.4% in 2023, after having recorded growth rates of 21.7% and 8.9% in 2022 and 2021, respectively. With the economy still stuck in muddling-along-mode (real GDP growth average of 0.7% in the past 10 years), road freight payload subsequently declined by a notable 7.7% in 2024 and further by 0.8% year-to-date in 2025, according to Ctrack’s quarterly report.
Given all the ongoing challenges the sector is facing, heavy vehicle traffic on the N3 route (large and extra-large trucks) declined by 1.0% in 2024 (vs growth of 0.6% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2022). On a positive note, the report continues, growth of 3.8% was recorded in heavy vehicle traffic on the N3 in the first nine months of 2025, partly reflecting the improved operational performance of the Durban port. On the contrary, heavy vehicle traffic on the N4 route plummeted by around 20% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to a year earlier, following a contraction of 3.8% in 2024. Especially in 2022 and 2023, at the height of the Port of Durban’s troubles, cargo loads had been redirected towards the Port of Maputo. That trend resulted in heavy vehicle traffic on the N4 route skyrocketing with growth rates of around 57% and 25% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Thus, the pullback on the N4 route is off an extremely high base.
The logistics sector transformed notably in the past few years, specifically relating to payload moving from rail to road. According to the report, this has primarily been driven by the deterioration and underperformance of rail services offered by Transnet Freight Rail. In its monthly Land Transport data release, Statistics South Africa reports on developments in rail and road freight. From reaching a rock-bottom low of only 9.0% of total freight payload been transported via rail in November 2022, the performance of rail has improved gradually to 14.5% in August 2025 (vs forecast of 14.6% for 2025 as a whole; 14.1% in 2024), though still notably lower than the 10-year average of 22% (2008-2017) reached prior to the onset of the significant deterioration.
The private sector operators have, as could have been reasonably expected, filled the void and road freight boomed in recent years, especially post-Covid, the report notes. From a percentage of 78.9% in 2017, road freight as a percentage of total freight, has gradually moved higher to reach an all-time high of 91.0% late in 2022. Although there are plans on the table to reverse this trend, many obstacles are still in the way, and it will likely take a considerable period and noteworthy effort to address all the challenges. The latest available data suggests that road freight as percentage of total freight payload was 85.5% in August 2025, comparing to 85.9% in 2024, clearly a very gradual process, the report states.
The recovery in the Rail Freight sector is gradual, but on track and likely to see more cargoes moving from road to rail in coming years, as structural reforms gain momentum. A significant driver of government’s logistics reform agenda was the need to arrest the decline in freight volumes as a result of weak operational performance. The implementation of Transnet’s Recovery Plan, which aims to increase the availability and reliability of rolling stock, address the maintenance backlog across the rail network, enhance customer collaboration and reduce security incidents, has been supported by the National Logistics Crisis Committee (NLCC). Transnet’s financial results for the 2024/25 financial year confirm the impact of the recovery interventions that were implemented from 2023. In particular, freight volumes increased to over 160 million tons, reflecting a 5.5% increase compared to prior financial years – reversing the downward trend in volumes, but still falling short on its stated goals. Still, after increasing only marginally in 2024 (0.8% in 2024), growth in rail freight payload increased by 3.3% in the first nine months of 2025, according to the report.
GRAPH 3: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: ROAD VS RAIL FREIGHT PAYLOAD
