SOUTH Africa’s citrus industry is on track for another year of measured expansion, with export volumes projected to increase by between 3% and 5% in the 2026 season, according to the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa.
The industry body estimates total exports will reach between 210 million and 215 million 15kg cartons, continuing a long-term upward trajectory in the country’s largest agricultural export sector. The current figures exclude late mandarins, which account for a significant share of the crop and are expected to be finalised in the coming weeks.
CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele said the outlook remains positive but is tempered by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, particularly the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East on global trade dynamics.
“We are acutely aware of the uncertainties the industry faces, including potential effects on demand, shipping, fuel availability and input costs,” Ntshabele said.
“However, with the right interventions, steady growth towards another record export season remains achievable.” He added that the CGA has strengthened its data and market intelligence capabilities, alongside ongoing monitoring processes, to support timely adjustments to export estimates and improve logistics planning across the supply chain.
Lemons lead growth
Among the major categories, lemons are expected to drive growth, with exports projected at 45.9 million cartons – up 10% from 41.6 million cartons in 2025. The increase is attributed to new orchards coming into production in the Sundays River Valley and the recovery of the Senwes region, including Marble Hall and Groblersdal, following earlier hail damage.
Mixed performance across orange varieties
Navel orange exports are forecast at 30 million cartons, representing a 5% decline from last year’s record volumes. Despite the dip, output remains aligned with the industry’s longer-term growth trend and is still 10% higher than 2024 levels. The category includes 13.4 million cartons of early and midseason navels and 16.6 million cartons of late navels.
Valencia oranges – the largest export segment – are expected to grow marginally by 1.6% to 63 million cartons. This follows an exceptional 2025 season driven by optimal growing conditions across most regions. Production patterns in 2026 are expected to normalise, with notable regional variation.
Northern growing areas are forecast to post gains of between 4% and 17% compared with last year, supported by favourable weather and minimal impact from January floods. In contrast, the Eastern and Western Cape regions are expected to see declines of between 7% and 20%, largely due to drier summer conditions and the natural cycle of alternate bearing in citrus orchards. Regional supply is also being influenced by rising production in neighbouring countries, including Zimbabwe, as well as new market participation from Botswana and Mozambique.
Strong recovery in grapefruit
Grapefruit exports are projected to increase sharply by 16% to 15.7 million 17kg cartons, up from 13.5 million cartons in 2025. The growth is largely attributed to favourable growing conditions, although early indications suggest smaller fruit sizes. Wet weather in northern regions has caused some delays in early harvesting.
Early Mandarins Decline Slightly Early mandarin varieties show a mixed performance.
Satsuma exports are expected to remain stable at around 1.5 million cartons, while Nova mandarins are forecast to decline by 3% to 5.6 million cartons.
Clementine exports are also projected to fall by 4% to 6.2 million cartons. Updated projections for late mandarins will be released later in the season as industry monitoring continues.
Structural constraints remain
Ntshabele emphasised that addressing domestic and international constraints will be critical to sustaining growth. He highlighted the need for expanded market access to key destinations such as China, India and the United States, as well as ongoing concerns over the European Union’s plant health regulations.
Dr Ntshabele said: “Considering the global instability, it is essential that attention be given to factors which are within South Africa’s control and can unlock the potential of our citrus export sector. A number of constraints can be addressed to secure the future growth of our industry. Enhanced market access to China, India and the United States would provide a meaningful boost to the industry.
“The European Union’s unnecessary and unscientific plant health requirements for South African citrus is also a constraint and remains unresolved.” Logistics inefficiencies – particularly within South Africa’s rail network – also remain a major challenge, with calls for increased private sector participation to improve performance.
The citrus sector currently employs approximately 140,000 people at farm level and plays a significant role in rural economic development. With continued expansion, the industry has the potential to create tens of thousands of additional jobs while strengthening South Africa’s position in global fresh produce markets.
